The ‘F1’ Movie Might Be a Hit, But Apple’s Movie Strategy For Streaming Is Still a Miss
Today I want to analyze the “success” of the new F1 movie featuring Brad Pitt, Damson Idris and Javier Bardem, but also discuss why this box office success shouldn’t encourage Apple to continue with their current movie-to-streaming strategy.
F1’s $144M Opening Marred by a $300M+ Budget
Apple Studios’ newest project topped last weekend’s box office, earning $144M+ globally. Objectively, that’s a pretty great opening- a quick search will show that the film will likely rank within the Top 40 opening weekends of all-time using this Box Office Mojo data. Alongside an incredible 97% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes and a flurry of positive social media fodder, the movie’s on track to be a major success, right? Maybe.
While F1 has had a very promising movie debut, the film reportedly was extremely expensive. While most reports have the film sitting between $250M and $300M, according to respected media analyst Matthew Belloni of Puck (also host of an incredible podcast) the movie may be one of the most expensive movies ever made, reportedly costing more than the $300M.
There’s a few reasons the film’s cost was so high:
- Production began but almost immediately halted due to the 2023’s SAG-AFTRA strikes.
- Using the lead actors in a real Formula 1 vehicle required increased training and safety protocols, further increasing costs.
- Intensive marketing campaign.
So does F1 have a chance at becoming profitable? Yes, but it’ll be very challenging. A “success” is normally earning two to three times its production budget, meaning it’ll have a lot of heavy lifting to do over the next few weeks.
Awards Can’t Save a Failing Movie Strategy
I’ll say what few are willing to admit: Apple TV+’s theater-to-SVOD strategy has not been effective. Maybe I’m a little cynical, but after five years of releases and only a few minor wins, it may be time for Apple to pull the plug on their movie strategy — or at least rethink it.
The studio has had some critical success, with several projects having earned or been nominated for prestigious entertainment awards. Marketing a project as an award contender is expensive and, in theory, boosts audience interest.
CODA won best picture at the 94th Academy Awards and was nominated for several other categories. Almost two years later, Killers of the Flower Moon (KOTFM) earned many accolades. Aside from those, most other projects have failed to earn recognition from major Hollywood awards.
But do prestigious accolades really translate to viewership for Apple? Short answer – no.
Martin Scorsese’s project didn’t even break even in theaters. Killers of the Flower Moon reportedly cost a little over $200M and only grossed $158M. Okay, what about Best Picture winner CODA? Despite its modest $10M budget, it only earned $2.2M at the box office. The studio also produced Ridley Scott’s Napoleon movie, starring Joaquin Phoenix, a highly anticipated historical biopic. The Napoleonfilm grossed $240M on a $200M budget — technically breaking even, but likely a loss once marketing is factored in.
“Analysts have questioned why Apple spends billions annually on a business so far afield from its core consumer-electronics operation, even if it’s barely a blip for a company worth some $3 trillion. “The strategic value it brings is sufficiently mysterious for people not to talk about it very much,” said analyst Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson in an article by The Wall Street Journal.
I won’t dive into every individual movie, because most of them follow this same pattern of being a box office flop.
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